SpaceX IPO: $18.7B Revenue, 10.3M Starlink Users, One Big Risk
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SEO title: SpaceX IPO: $18.7B Revenue, 10.3M Starlink Users, One Big Risk Meta description: SpaceX filed its S1: $18.7B revenue, $4.9B loss, 10.3M Starlink subscribers. Retail access at $2K. The $1.75T valuation is where the debate starts. Canonical path: /research/spacexipo Primary search intent: Understand the public debate around SpaceX IPO valuation, Starlink spinoff speculation, retail investor access, and profitability concerns. Target keywords: SpaceX IPO valuation, SpaceX IPO 2026, Starlink IPO spinoff, SpaceX stock price prediction, can you buy SpaceX stock, SpaceX revenue model, Starlink subscriber growth, Elon Musk SpaceX IPO risk
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Readiness: publishableseed (79.2/100) Generated: 20260603T09:37:56.663623+00:00 Entity type: topic Industry: Aerospace & Defense Data foundation: 567 content items, 667 extracted opinion units, 91 entity insights, 41 sampled evidence links.
Executive Summary
"It’s all great but at a huge 1.52.0 Trillion valuation it’s insane, that’s a forward PE of over a 100." TikTok commenter
SpaceX Elon Musk’s private rocket and satellite internet company is headed for what could be the largest tech IPO in history. But across 567 sources on Reddit and TikTok, the dominant conversation is not excitement about space. It is confusion about money.
Valuation estimates circulating online range from $50 billion (a Morgan Stanley analysis) to $1.75 trillion (a headline IPO filing target). Reddit threads cite $100 billion, $200 billion, $350 billion, and $800 billion sometimes in the same conversation. There is no shared analytical ground. Bulls and bears are not debating the same company; they are debating different numbers pulled from different eras of SpaceX’s private fundraising history.
The Starlink question makes everything harder. SpaceX’s satellite internet division Starlink, now with 5+ million subscribers and visible recurring revenue is the part of the business that investors can actually underwrite. For years, Bloomberg reports and COO statements have hinted at a Starlink spinoff. Reddit threads track every rumor. But nobody knows whether they would be buying SpaceX (rockets, Mars ambitions, government contracts) or Starlink (subscription internet) or both. That structural ambiguity is itself a headwind for pricing.
Meanwhile, on TikTok, a different conversation is happening entirely. Commenters are asking the most basic possible questions: "How can it make a profit if it doesn’t sell anything?" Whether that is technically accurate matters less than what it reveals SpaceX’s public narrative has dramatically outrun the public’s understanding of the business.
What People Are Saying
First, What SpaceX Actually Is
SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is an aerospace manufacturer and satellite internet provider founded by Elon Musk in 2002. The company builds and launches Falcon 9 rockets (the world’s most frequently launched orbital rocket), develops the Starship superheavy launch vehicle, and operates Starlink, a constellation of thousands of lowEarthorbit satellites that provide broadband internet to customers in 155 countries. SpaceX is also the primary provider of crewed launches to the International Space Station for NASA.
The company has been private since its founding. That is about to change. On May 20, 2026, SpaceX filed its S1 with the SEC. Amendment No. 1 to the S1 followed on June 1. The company has applied to list Class A common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Reuters reported that SpaceX expects to begin its roadshow on June 4, price the IPO on June 11, and begin trading on June 12, 2026.
If the target holds, this will be the largest IPO in history.
The Numbers Nobody Can Agree On
The S1 filing finally gave the public something it never had before: actual financials. In 2025, SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in consolidated revenue and a $4.9 billion net loss. EBITDA came in at $6.58 billion. The Connectivity segment primarily Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue, $4.4 billion in operating income, and $7.2 billion in segmentadjusted EBITDA. The Launch segment, covering Falcon 9 and Starship, contributed the remaining $7.3 billion in revenue but operated at a loss due to Starship development costs.
But the valuation conversation still has no floor or ceiling. The filing targets $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. Morgan Stanley has previously estimated $200350 billion. Reddit threads cite $50 billion, $100 billion, $800 billion sometimes in the same conversation. At the target price of approximately $135 per share across 555.6 million shares offered, the implied forward P/E exceeds 100.
"It’s all great but at a huge 1.52.0 Trillion valuation it’s insane, that’s a forward PE of over a 100, Nvidia is going at 80% and has a..." TikTok user2086598530309
This is not a market debate. It is a pricing vacuum. The company posted an $18.7 billion revenue year and a $4.9 billion loss, and bulls are valuing it at nearly 100x revenue. The S1 helped, but the gap between the numbers and the narrative remains staggering.
https://www.tiktok.com/@nicholewischoff/video/7642534781493710094
Retail Investors: From Locked Out to Front Row
For years, the story was simple: ordinary investors could not buy SpaceX stock. To participate in preIPO secondary markets, you needed to be an accredited investor individual income above $200,000/year or net worth exceeding $1 million excluding your home and most platforms required minimums of $50,000 to $100,000 per transaction. TikTok advice boiled down to "buy the 4 companies and 3 ETFs that already own SpaceX private equity."
"Retail investors have no chance to buy SpaceX shares. The play is to buy the 4 companies and 3 ETFs that already own Space X private equity." TikTok commenter DMAN
That changed with the S1. Musk reportedly wants about 30% of the shares earmarked for retail investors an unusually large retail allocation for an IPO of this size. Fidelity slashed its SpaceX IPO entry requirement from as much as $500,000 to just $2,000, opening the offering to millions of everyday investors. The confirmed retailaccessible brokerages, per the S1, are Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, and ETrade by Morgan Stanley. SpaceX even launched a dedicated IPO website for retail investors.
This is a deliberate strategy. The broader the retail base, the more stable the aftermarket demand and the harder it is for institutional sellers to tank the stock on day one. But it also means millions of firsttime IPO participants will be buying into a company that most of them cannot explain the business model of.
https://www.tiktok.com/@nobsvcgirl/video/7642513864063470861
"How Can It Make a Profit If It Doesn’t Sell Anything?"
The bear case on TikTok is not sophisticated, but it is widespread. Commenters do not understand how SpaceX makes money. They question whether the company has ever generated revenue. The AIdatacentersinspace concept part of SpaceX’s forwardlooking narrative draws particular ridicule.
"How do we short just the AI datacenters in space part? It’s obvious it makes no sense at all, in five years time we will all laugh." TikTok commenter dazonic
Whether these critiques are technically accurate is beside the point. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 it sells rocket launches and satellite internet. But the public narrative of rockets, Mars, and the future has dramatically outpaced the public’s understanding of how the money actually works. When TikTok commenters with hundreds of thousands of followers say "they have never generated revenue," that perception is a real barrier to broad IPO demand, even if it is factually wrong.
https://www.tiktok.com/@bloombergbusiness/video/7642226854824299806
Starlink Is the Real Asset and It Is Growing Faster Than Anyone Expected
The clearest investor interest is not in SpaceX the rocket company. It is in Starlink, the satellite internet service. And the growth trajectory is extraordinary.
Starlink had 1 million subscribers in 2022. It reached 2.3 million in 2023, 4.4 million in 2024, and 8.9 million by the end of 2025. By March 2026, Starlink had surpassed 10.3 million active customers across 155 countries. The subscriber base has roughly doubled every year for four consecutive years.
Revenue tells the same story: $11.4 billion from the Connectivity segment in 2025, making it 61% of total SpaceX revenue and the company’s sole profit center. Average revenue per subscriber fell 18% to $81/month between 2023 and 2025, reflecting a deliberate trade of ARPU for global volume.
For years, Reddit threads tracked every Starlink spinoff rumor. Bloomberg reported on potential spinoff plans. SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell publicly said the company was "likely to spin off" Starlink and pursue a separate IPO. But the S1 makes clear: the current IPO is an integrated offering. Starlink is a segment within SpaceX, not a standalone listing. An eventual spinoff remains possible but is not happening now.
This structural decision matters. Investors who want to own satellite internet must also own Starship development costs, Mars ambitions, and government launch contracts. Investors who want pure rocket exposure cannot separate it from an internet subscription business. The integrated structure is simpler for SpaceX but forces every investor to buy the whole bundle.
The Musk Premium Is Also the Musk Risk
Every SpaceX valuation conversation eventually circles back to Elon Musk. He is simultaneously the reason the company’s vision is credible and the reason its governance is a concern.
Wall Street analysts flag concentrationofcontrol risk Musk controls SpaceX through a supervoting share structure. TikTok commenters worry about layoffs timed to avoid payouts. Reddit threads track political conflicts between Musk and government officials significant becaus